"Past". Can Azerbaijan use the acquisition of weapons as an "excuse" for new aggression?

"Fact" daily writes: "Armenia has started acquiring various weapons or showing special interest in them, which is certainly great. And if before 2020 such active work was carried out in the direction of replenishment of ammunition, maybe we would not be in such a difficult situation. However, it is noteworthy that when a certain amount of weapons is acquired, moreover, even when an agreement is reached, a big propaganda campaign is organized all over the Internet, saying: "we are finally saved", "long live the authorities that bring weapons" and so on. And the most worrisome thing is that even before the weapons have been acquired, it is already announced.

First of all, it is said that Armenia is interested in this or that weapon. Then a special party is organized when official visits are made and contracts are signed. Separately, a large advertising campaign is held when these weapons arrive. And it is natural that such a reality excites Azerbaijan, which lends itself to breaking the ceasefire regime and undertaking new aggression. It is no coincidence that the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan expressed dissatisfaction with the development of military-technical cooperation between Armenia and France and the new contracts, issuing a political statement.

Moreover, in the statement of the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan, it was mentioned that the responsibility for the aggravation of the situation falls on the RA authorities. In other words, Azerbaijan can use the acquisition of weapons as an "excuse" to start a new aggression. It is clear that France's relations with Turkey and particularly with Azerbaijan are tense. Paris, for its part, is also trying to increase its presence in those regions where its interests and those of the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem collide. In the framework of this, France supplies weapons to Greece and Armenia. But the problem is that France and the West are practically unable to have a great impact on the situation in the South Caucasus and change the balance of power.

Even now, the mayor of Paris and other famous figures are calling on President Macron to send French troops to Armenia, but it is clear that such statements will not go beyond calls. In the same way, in Paris, they regularly talk about sending troops to Ukraine, but they remain at the level of rumors. Besides, a distant region like the South Caucasus is not so vital for Europe, particularly France, to open a military base or establish a practical presence. Of course, it is necessary for Armenia to deepen the cooperation with France and other Western countries in various ways, especially since they are worried about the excessive strengthening of Turkey's position in the region.

And if the Western countries, led by France and the USA, supply weapons to Greece in order to curb Turkey's appetite for that country, they can understandably do the same in the case of Armenia. But it should be kept in mind that Greece is part of the Western military-political alliance, while Armenia is not. Another important issue is that in the South Caucasus, whether we like it or not, Russia has a commanding position. Therefore, this circumstance should be taken into account, and if the Armenian side deepened its relations with the Western countries at the expense of Russia or pushing Russia out of the region, then this policy may have dire consequences. The deepening and expansion of relations with the West can only have a complementary nature. And it is also necessary to take into account that our neighbor Iran can also accept the excessive presence of the West in Armenia with bayonets.

There is also talk of acquiring new weapons from India, and against this backdrop, Yerevan's relations with New Delhi are also deepening. It is clear that India supports Armenia, because Turkey and Azerbaijan stand by its main enemy Pakistan and support it in the Kashmir conflict, but for India, the deals with Armenia are only commercial in nature. Although India's influence and economic power is growing, this is not a case where it can change the situation in the South Caucasus. This circumstance should also be taken into account. In addition, you can also take advantage of the offers of other countries that sell weapons, for example, China. Another important record is that the production of weapons is not developed in Armenia in order to reduce our dependence on the outside world.

The RA authorities are constantly talking about developing the military industry and creating a professional army, but they do nothing in this direction. If Armenia's potential is not sufficient, arrangements should be made with different countries for joint production. And the development of arms acquisition and production should take place in steady steps and quietly, without attracting unnecessary attention."