US intelligence on Armenian-Azerbaijani relations

Ph.D., international expert Sergey Melkonyan writes in the Telegram channel: "The annual assessment of threats by the US intelligence community was published yesterday. A small part of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations

The most important details

1. The tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan will remain, despite the fact that Baku managed to occupy Nagorno-Karabakh.

2. The possible conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2024 may be short-term and of limited intensity.

3. The factors that increase the risk of a new conflict are Azerbaijan's willingness to use force and military pressure to achieve its goals, the position of the soldiers, the absence of a ceasefire mechanism and a peace treaty.

Azerbaijan's desire to obtain a "corridor" increases the risk of using military force.

Conclusions

1. Azerbaijan will use force against Armenia. Security guarantees are not a deterrent mechanism for limited escalation.

2. The most likely direction of the strike is Tavush to get the "enclaves". If there is no strong reaction from external actors, Baku will try to break through the corridor as quickly as possible.

3. Attempts to calm the aggressor do not work. Even by handing over Artsakh and the "enclaves" during the negotiations, the Armenian leadership will get a new war, similar to the one in September 2022, when they lost more than 220 soldiers and about 200 square meters with strategic heights. km. area".