It is not necessary to wait for conclusions from 2024, because it is an election year. political scientist

"Detq" interlocutor is political scientist Robert Ghevondyan.

"Mr. Ghevondyan, how do you assess Nikol Pashinyan's participation in the session of the Supreme Council of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) held in St. Petersburg, taking into account the fact that recently the leaders of Armenia refused to participate in meetings held on the Russian platform?"

"This time, Nikol Pashinyan left because it was about the Eurasian Economic Union, to which Armenia is fully integrated, and at the moment it is impossible to imagine Armenia outside the Eurasian Economic Union, especially since the presidency was passed to Armenia on a rotating basis. It can be said that the Prime Minister of Armenia had no chance not to go. Moreover, there were many issues that needed to be clarified in Moscow, of course, avoiding sharp corners, which, we hope, the Prime Minister of Armenia has done. One could say that this visit was predestined."

As for what to expect, I think this visit will not have a serious, changing effect on the processes, as the processes started and are going, they will continue next year.

"Today, the Kremlin announced that Armenia and Azerbaijan are moving towards completing the work on the "peace treaty", and Moscow is ready to support them. According to you, Moscow is trying to return to its role as a mediator?"

"Moscow is trying to see its interests in that process, and we know that Moscow is in serious competition with the West in terms of acting as a mediator in Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, it uses every possible opportunity to emphasize its role. Given that the West is currently in a New Year's stupor, Moscow sees this as an opportunity and has therefore stepped up. However, as I said, I don't think it will have a big impact on the processes, and in the near future, if not in a month, we will see the continuation of the processes announced after O'Brien's visit, that is, the meeting of the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Washington."

"The day before, RA NA Speaker Alen Simonyan said that they have never been so close to peace. What do you think, is the process of the "peace treaty" close to a conclusion?"

"At the moment, there is a favorable environment for signing the document, but on the other hand, it should be taken into account that this document will not be a problem-solving document, and this has already been announced even at the highest level."

"In other words, it will be some kind of paper representing the wishes of the parties?"

"Most likely, it will be an interim document, something like a road map, which will not establish final agreements, as the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan has already loudly announced. But since it is necessary for the West, which has invested a lot of time, effort and energy in its preparation, therefore, Armenia and Azerbaijan will sign something like this."

"I would like to mention one interesting thing about that document. In my estimation, the more specific and guaranteed a document is, the fewer and more superficial the points will be. If there is, for example, a permanent guarantor like the United States that can force mechanisms to apply, there will be far fewer points. Naturally, both Armenia and Azerbaijan will try to leave a window of opportunity for themselves in the hope of getting more in the future."

"Summarizing the year 2023, all the processes that we witnessed during the year, what can be recorded, to what extent have the interests of Armenia been protected, and what gaps are there?"

"In the past year, we had painful losses, we saw the depopulation of Artsakh. On the other hand, there were also achievements within the borders of the Republic of Armenia, taking into account that the sovereignty of Armenia has been strengthened to a small extent, and the level of security has been strengthened to some extent. We know that the financial part of Armenia's military achievements crossed the 2 billion dollar threshold with India alone, which is unprecedented. It can be said that there are certain movements in this direction. At the same time, little progress was made in terms of Armenia's de-addiction. I will highlight here only the ratification of the Rome Statute. In other matters, the Armenian authorities seem to be hesitating, although there is already a public demand on many issues."

"What can we expect in the coming year, what processes can be predetermined?"

"I think there is no need to wait for solutions from 2024, because it is an election year in the European Union, Ukraine, Russia and the USA. We will probably see the continuation of processes, but not endings and resolutions."